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Section VIII. Industry Growth and Employer Engagement

VR Participant Job Goal Alignment With Projected Industry Growth

The CSNA team then compared goals on OOD participants’ Individualized Plans for Employment to the industries with the greatest potential for growth to identify possible alignment or misalignment. The most significant area of misalignment includes the health care industry with only approximately 5.52 percent of IPEs with a goal in that field, compared to a projected growth of nearly 44 percent of all new jobs created. Another area of misalignment includes Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, with approximately 5.54 percent of IPEs with a goal in that field, compared to a projected growth of 15.42 percent of new jobs. OOD participants’ job goals aligned comparably with industry growth projections in Food Service at 11.6 percent of job goals compared to 10.82 percent of all new jobs created.

These comparisons can also be stated in terms of balance ratios comparing the percent of total growth in a given industry sector to the percent of total job goals in that sector. Table 36 below provides the industry sectors with the highest and lowest balance ratios. Balance ratios closer to 0.0 represent more equal distributions of annual job growth and plan goal percentages. Balance ratios above zero represent industries where job goals exceed new job openings. Those below zero represent industries where job openings exceed job goals.

Table 36 - Highest and Lowest Plan Goal-to-Projected Industry Growth Balance Ratios

NAICS Industry Count of Annual New Jobs Count of Plan Goals Industry Balance Ratio
Administrative Support 432 1,965 23.20
Manufacturing -1,296 531 11.46
Retail Trade 1,340 1,021 7.96
Other Services 2,355 1,206 6.56
Transportation and Warehousing 1,926 914 4.46
Construction 1,643 149 -4.15
Educational Services 1,673 137 -4.42
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3,869 439 -8.67
Health Care and Social Assistance 12,068 438 -38.79

When comparing participants’ job goals to industry growth projection, the most significant areas of oversaturation include Administrative and Support, Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Other Services, and Transportation and Warehousing. In each of these areas, the percentage of participants’ IPEs with a job goal in that industry significantly outstrips the percentage of new jobs projected to be created.

When drilling down to occupations within the Administrative and Support industry, nearly 600 OOD participants have a goal of Customer Service Representative on their IPE; 470 have a goal of Janitors and Cleaners, and 284 have a goal of Office Clerks, General. New job creation projections for those occupations are 519, 351 and 185, respectively. Another area where OOD participants’ job goals significantly outstrip potential new job opportunities is in Personal Care and Service Workers, All Other. There are more than 400 OOD participants with this job goal, but only 2 new jobs expected to be created in the next year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the workforce is comprised of approximately 3.7 percent of workers with disabilities. Given this ratio, it appears unlikely that all or even most OOD participants with these job goals will be successful in obtaining employment in their chosen field. Table 37 below provides the occupations with five highest balance ratios in comparison to projected industry growth.

Table 37 - Five Highest Plan Goal-to-Projected Growth Balance Ratios

Job Description Count of Annual New Jobs Count of Plan Goals Job Balance Ratio
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 138 882 10.62
Customer Service Representatives 519 599 5.65
Personal Care and Service Workers, All Other 2 405 5.10
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 351 470 4.64
Office Clerks, General 185 284 2.90
Total 1,195 2,640  


At the other end of the balance ratio spectrum are occupations for which projected growth far outstrips participant plan goals. These are dominated by occupations in the health care industry, as is suggested by the industry analysis above. The occupations with the five lowest balance ratios comparing job goals to projected industry growth are shown below in Table 38. These may represent the industries and occupations that the Business Relations Unit should target to create employer partnerships and establish sustainable employment opportunities for individuals served by VR.

Table 38 - Five Lowest Plan Goal-to-Projected Growth Balance Ratios

Job Description Count of Annual New Jobs Count of Plan Goals Job Balance Ratio
Licensed Practical and Licenses Vocational Nurses 713 22 -2.34
Medical Secretaries 798 4 -2.88
Nursing Assistants 1,108 63 -3.27
Registered Nurses 1,931 25 -6.78
Home Health Aides 2,506 20 -8.95
Total 7,056 134  


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