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Section V. Prevalence and Service Rate: Need Ratio Projections of Unmet Need

Projecting the number of Ohioans experiencing various categories of disability is a key tool for addressing the needs assessment questions. The purpose of developing such projections is to determine, with as much accuracy as possible, the estimated number of individuals in each county likely to experience a disability consistent with the categories of disability served by OOD. These projections assist planners in making resource allocation decisions based on reasonable estimates of the need for services.

Limitations of the Data

The findings summarized in this section of the CSNA are intended to be estimates of the magnitude of need in any individual county in Ohio. The precision of these estimates is not sufficient to address questions about the actual numbers of individuals likely to experience specific disabilities. Rather, the estimates are used to categorize counties into one of six groups representing a continuum of need from lowest to highest. It is important to point out that data reviewed in this section of the CSNA indicate that there are unmet needs in all counties in Ohio.

Methods for Developing Prevalence Estimates

Following the method utilized in the two previous CSNAs (2012 and 2015), OOD estimated county level prevalence rates based on multiplying population figures by a coefficient derived from a national or other reputable source. Estimates of prevalence from the ACS were considered when there was a close match with OOD categories of disability. When there was not a close match, other reputable sources suggested in the RSA CSNA manual (Shell, 2009) were consulted.

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